It is appealing to think about a certain future and to find certainty in an uncertain world, since that would give us a great advantage[1]. The question is: how?
It is no secret that the world is changing at an ever faster rate, but in recent years that acceleration has been more surprising still. Digital transformation has split us into two camps, according to a recent book by Daniel Burrus[2], a recognised author on new technological advances and their application in our society. Those two camps are made up of those who create disruption in their markets and those who live with the results. It would clearly be desirable to be in the first group, but that is not so simple.
Daniel Burrus develops a concept that should not be new: he calls it the anticipatory organisation. Within it he sets out a model that should help us identify game-changing opportunities[3].
The model starts by separating two kinds of trend: hard trends and soft trends. It is the starting point every manager has to work through, and it determines the direction to take. Learning a new competency is essential today: how to anticipate the future accurately.
A hard trend is a fact that will not change and that rests on concrete, proven, measured evidence — in other words, something that will be very hard to alter. Some examples: the speed of communications, the incremental improvement in computing capacity, or the growing demand to make use of the information a company holds (along with the need for that information to be always available and readable on any kind of device). Another example is the trend towards environmental sustainability and the protection of natural resources, which will not only persist but will see governments introduce new regulations for operating in any market. It is hard to see any of these trends slowing down.
A soft trend is something that could happen, and where tangible, statistical evidence may suggest it will. Soft trends are a powerful ingredient for capitalising on the future.
Analysing the company's future with both kinds of trend in mind lets us look at and plan for the future differently. If we understand that some trends will not change, we spend less effort trying to change them or waiting for them to change.
Risk is treated differently in each case: a soft trend carries high risk and uncertainty, so we may well end up stalled on a project, a hire or the adoption of a product.
Achieving the success we hope for in business calls for being light enough to move easily, and that comes from decisions we should not delay — decisions tied to one of the most important inputs of all: information.
Information is a resource a company generates continuously, and today it lives not only in printed formats but in digital ones that can be read and used from many kinds of device. Social networks are an invaluable source of information that very few companies use.
How much of our company's information can be moved into digital formats so it can be shared and used for decision-making? Which of that information can we use while trusting its quality and accuracy? The answers to those questions lie in treating information seriously.
What are people saying about my products on social media? How is my company's image perceived there? Hard to know without running behavioural assessments in specialised tools.
One of the hard trends lies in the ability to exploit and analyse information using mathematical and statistical models which, combined with the use of the cloud, let us get ahead of our decisions. Our decisions should be aimed at developing strategies, in the understanding that those strategies will not change because they rest on information.
[1] Daniel Burrus, The Anticipatory Organization. Greenleaf Book Group Press, 2017. [2] Daniel Burrus, The Anticipatory Organization. Greenleaf Book Group Press, 2017. [3] Daniel Burrus, The Anticipatory Organization. Greenleaf Book Group Press, 2017.
